Understanding Sports Betting Hold: How Bookmakers Ensure Profit
The concept of “hold” in sports betting is a fundamental mechanism that guarantees profit for sportsbooks over time, regardless of individual betting outcomes. Understanding how hold works is essential for bettors who wish to make informed decisions and evaluate the fairness and profitability of betting markets.
What Is Sports Betting Hold?
The “hold” in sports betting refers to the percentage of total money wagered (handle) that a sportsbook retains as profit after all bets are settled. It is also commonly referred to as the “house edge” in other forms of gambling. Hold is essentially the bookmaker’s built-in profit margin, derived from the odds they set on both sides of a wager.
For example, in a perfectly balanced two-outcome event (like a point spread or moneyline in a football game), the sportsbook typically sets the odds to encourage even betting on both sides. Even if each side has equal probability (50/50), the odds offered might be -110, meaning a bettor must wager $110 to win $100. This small discrepancy ensures the sportsbook collects more money than it pays out when both sides are evenly matched.
How Is Hold Calculated?
The formula to calculate hold is:
Hold % = (Total Handle – Total Payouts) / Total Handle × 100
Example:
- Total amount wagered by all bettors (handle): $1,000,000
- Total amount paid out to winners: $940,000
- Hold = ($1,000,000 – $940,000) / $1,000,000 × 100 = 6%
In this case, the sportsbook retains 6% of the handle as profit.
The Role of Vigorish (Juice)
The hold percentage is largely influenced by the “vig” or “juice,” which is the commission charged by the sportsbook. Standard vig on point spreads and totals is typically around 10%, which leads to a theoretical hold of about 4.54% in a balanced market. However, in practice, the hold can vary significantly depending on the sport, bet type, and how lopsided the action is.
For example:
- A well-balanced NFL game may have a low hold (3-5%)
- A parlay with multiple legs can have a hold above 20%
- Futures bets and props often feature the highest hold, sometimes exceeding 30%
Impact on Bettors
High hold percentages reduce the expected value of bets over the long run. Bettors wagering into high-hold markets must win at a much higher rate to be profitable. Therefore, savvy bettors aim to minimize the impact of hold by:
- Shopping for the best odds across multiple sportsbooks
- Avoiding high-hold bet types like parlays and futures unless they spot a clear edge
- Understanding implied probabilities behind odds to detect mispriced lines
Hold vs. Win Rate
It’s important to distinguish between the “hold” and a sportsbook’s “win rate.” While hold represents the percentage of total wagers retained, win rate is often used internally by sportsbooks to evaluate performance across specific periods or markets. Both metrics help in assessing profitability but from different angles.
Hold in Different Jurisdictions
Different countries and regulatory bodies may report hold rates differently. In the U.S., states that have legalized sports betting typically release monthly figures showing the total handle and revenue, from which the hold can be inferred. Some states have consistent low holds due to competition, while others have higher holds due to limited operator choice or heavily juiced markets.
Conclusion
The hold is the silent mechanism through which sportsbooks make money. It’s built into the odds, reinforced by the vig, and compounded in exotic bet types. Understanding the hold empowers bettors to make smarter choices, avoid traps in inflated markets, and better evaluate where the edge lies. Ultimately, while individual bets may win or lose, the hold ensures the house always has a long-term advantage—unless bettors are wise enough to beat it.
